Baytex Energy (BTE) is a company that is highly leveraged to oil prices. With its large differentials for its Canadian oil production, its margins can change significantly with a more modest change in oil prices. For the time being though, the weaker Canadian dollar has offset much of effect of oil prices falling compared to a month ago.
Baytex is priced appropriately for the current oil strip, so upside versus its current share price depends on whether long-term oil prices go up from around $52. Although I believe that growing US production will make it difficult for oil prices to increase a huge amount from current levels, taking the over on $52 oil seems a reasonable proposition.
2017 At $50 Oil
If NYMEX oil averages $50 during 2017, it appears that Baytex would end up with approximately $733 million in revenue, including $8 million in positive hedge value. This compares with my previous estimate of $782 million in revenue at $55 oil.
Units
Top 5 Canadian Stocks For 2018: Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.(NUS)
Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Citigroup’s Beth Kite calls Nu Skin Enterprises’ (NUS) earnings and guidance “awfully disappointing.” She explains why:
“Frustrating” Describes 4Q15 & 2016 Guidance:Nu Skin (i) reported 4Q15 EPS of $0.62, 11 cents below consensus and us, and (ii) lowered 2016 EPS guidance, from $3.25-$3.40 to $2.40-$2.60.Nu Skin had three LTO’s in 4Q152 succeeded and 1 failed. The failure had far less to do with the product than with the sales strategy…
Is Guidance Too Conservative or Is It Really This Bad? We get that Me failed to sell well in South Korea with the 12-month cartridge commitment. But given the strength in reps globally, the strength of Youth from its two LTOs in 2H15, and good results from Me when sold in Japan without the 12-month commitment, we wonder if guidance is aggressive to the downside. Indeed, the word “conservative” was said a lot by mgmt on the brief earnings call when describing guidance revisions.
Maintaining Buy: While we now have less confidence in mgmt, from an external perspective, to forecast its results accurately, and from an internal perspective, to course correct quicklyi.e., why didn’t they drop the 12-month plan for Me in South Korea when it so obviously wasn’t workingwe are still confident in Youth & Me. The rep growth in South Asia/Pacific from Youth in 3Q led to better 4Q sales than we’d expected, Youth’s Americas LTO in 4Q drove lc sales up 26% YoY, and Me not only sold through in Japan in 4Q but also drove reps higher. We imagine that investors may have little patience or confidence in Nu Skin for a while, understandably. But the bar seems set fairly low now, so we are cautiously optimistic that Nu Skin can dig itself out of this hole as we go through 2016 and Me & Youth roll out more fully.
Shares of Nu Skin have tumbled 13% to $27.31 at 2:11 p.m. today.
- [By Craig Jones]
Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: NUS) is trading sharply higher on Friday, but options traders are buying puts in the name, said Jon Najarian. Traders were buying the June 50 puts and they paid around 6 percent for them, so they don't see much upside in Nu Skin Enterprises, explained Najarian. He followed the trade and he is planning to hold the position for a month.
- [By Scott Rubin]
Stock gainers included Mercadolibre Inc (NASDAQ: MELI), up almost 14 percent, and Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: NUS), which added 12 percent. The positive gains in both stocks were due to strong earnings reports. Shares of Liberty Interactive Group (NASDAQ: QVCA) plunged almost 22 percent on Friday due to disappointing sales growth in its fiscal second quarter. Pharmaceutical giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY) lost 16 percent after a disappointing study involving its Opdivo drug.
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) is a direct selling company, which develops and distributes personal care products and nutritional supplements that are sold under the Nu Skin and Pharmanex brands. This stock closed up 5.4% at $92.96 in Monday’s trading session.
Monday’s Volume: 2 million
Three-Month Average Volume: 900,802
Volume % Change: 85%
From a technical perspective, NUS ripped higher here right above some near-term support at $85 with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of NUS into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $88.20 to $89.69. This move also pushed shares of NUS above the upper-end of its recent range that saw the stock trend between $82 to just above $89.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in NUS as long as it’s trending above support at $85 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday’s high of $93.33 with volume that this near or above 900,802 shares. If we get that move soon, then NUS will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $100 to $105.
Top 5 Canadian Stocks For 2018: Natural Gas(NG)
Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By James E. Brumley]
When an investor thinks of Canadian gold mining stocks, NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (NYSEMKT:NG) and Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) (NYSE:AUY) are often the first names to come to mind. And well they should. Yamana Gold is a $2.5 billion giant, and NovaGold Resources seems to have been around forever.
Those two icons aren’t the only way to tap into Canada’s sizeable gold mining industry though. There’s a small, up-and-coming player called Taranis Resources Inc. (OTCMKTS:TNREF, TSX:TRO) that could end up becoming another key fixture of the country’s mining landscape.
Taranis develops mineral deposits into mine-ready projects. Its primary project right now — and it’s enough to keep the company plenty busy for the next several years — is the Thor property located near Trout Lake, British Columbia. NI 43-101 resource reports (indicated and inferred)suggest Thor contains 6.9 million ounces of silver, 35,000 ounces gold, 57 million pounds of lead, 79.4 million pounds of zinc and 3.3 Million pounds of copper (roughly a 14 million ounce silver equivalent (“AgEq”) deposit*) laying in wait in a way that lends itself to the establishment of a low-cost, open pit mining operation. That’s roughly $300 million worth of marketable metals, and the estimates have been steadily getting bigger as Tanaris does more survey work.
And 2017 could be a real breakout year for Taranis, as a lot of the work that’s been done to date starts to mean something. It’s got big exploration plans for this year… this spring/summer to be exact.
The Phase 1 program was completed in September of last year, setting the stage for a more defined and much bigger Phase 2 definition-drilling within the next several weeks. This Phase 2 definition drilling slated for the middle of this year will drill down to between 6000 m and 10,000 m.
These so-called first generation target areas are generally well understood areas based on sound geological information includ
Top 5 Canadian Stocks For 2018: 3M Company(MMM)
Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Dustin Blitchok]
Morrison’s resignation came about one hour after 3M Co (NYSE: MMM) CEO Inge Thulin pulled the plug.
In a Wednesday statement on his departure from what’s formally known as the Manufacturing Jobs Initiative, Thulin said the group “is no longer an effective vehicle” for the technology company to promote job growth in the U.S.
- [By Chris Lange]
3M Company (NYSE: MMM) is set to report its second-quarter results on Tuesday. The analysts consensus estimates call for EPS of $2.54 and $7.86 billion in revenue. Shares of 3M were changing hands at $211.07 at Fridays close. The consensus price target is $205.09, and the 52-week range is $163.85 to $214.57.
- [By WWW.THESTREET.COM]
We saw this pattern with 3M (MMM) , one of my favorite stocks, which got crushed, falling from $177 to $173 because of what the headline writers called a weak consumer-products division. Sure, you can pull a line and see an unexpected decline. But declines do not necessarily mean weakness, which, to me, connotes a failure to have the right product and flagging sales. If you go listen to the conference call, you discover that the weakness had to do with a particularly retailer’s troubles. Sure, you could argue, why do we trust this company? I come back and say, you trust them because CEO Inge Thulin has been money in the bank for years and there’s no reason not to trust him.
Top 5 Canadian Stocks For 2018: Credit Suisse Group(CS)
Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Diane Alter]
The head underwriters for the ZTO IPO are Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS). Also working on the deal are China Renaissance, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).
- [By Wayne Duggan] Related DB Deutsche Bank In The Tank Mike Khouw Sees Unusual Options Activity In Deutsche Bank 33 Large Banks On The Federal Reserve's Radar In 2016 (Seeking Alpha)
Related CS Earnings Scheduled For February 4, 2016 Blockchain Moves Forward In The Financial Industry Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) Tidjane Thiam on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript (Seeking Alpha)
The latest credit default swap (CDS) data from BMO Capital Markets indicate a number of investors are growing increasingly concerned about the one-year outlook for capital markets. In a new report, analyst Mark Steele discussed the recent surge in one-year CDS activity, and what it means for the market.
- [By Paul R. La Monica]
European banks worse off than 2008? Lamensdorf is concerned about the exposure to bad loans (especially energy company debt) held by big banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutsche Bank (DB). He’s shorting all three.
- [By Money Morning News Team]
That’s why Krauth predicts the price of gold will hit $1,400 by the end of the year. Many analysts from banks likeCredit SuisseGroup AG (NYSE ADR: CS) even see gold going as high as $1,500.
- [By David Zeiler]
The federal government’s largesse isn’t restricted to U.S.-based companies, either. Foreign companies, including foreign banks, are also welcome. Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) got $225.1 billion, and UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS) got $249.1 billion.
Top 5 Canadian Stocks For 2018: Canadian National Railway Company(CNI)
Advisors’ Opinion:
- [By Brett Hershman]
The Swiss bank said it was raising first-quarter estimates on four of the six rails it covers, with updated estimates above consensus on Canadian National Railway (USA) (NYSE: CNI), CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: CSX) and Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU), which is seen to show upside against low expectations.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Canadian National Railway (USA) (NYSE: CNI) is estimated to post its quarterly earnings at $0.92 per share on revenue of $3.08 billion.
Container Store Group Inc (NYSE: TCS) is expected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.21 per share on revenue of $230.53 million.
