The Dow is coming off an annual gain of 25% heres what typically happens next

Welcome to the first trading day of the new year. Its just one session and wont set the tone for 2018, right?

LPL Financial stat-slinger Ryan Detrick suggests today could matter more than you might expect.

In the past 20 first sessions of the year, the S&P 500 has closed higher on 10 occasions, he notes in a tweet.

Full-year return if up the first day? +14.2%, Detrick says. Full-year return if down the first day? -0.6%.

The LPL strategist also serves up our call of the day, with this advice for investors: Dont turn bearish simply because 17 was up a lot.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 25% last year, marking the 10th time since 1950 that it scored an annual advance of that magnitude or more.

What typically has happened after such banner years? The Dow has been higher in the next year on eight occasions posting a double-digit percentage rise six times, Detrick says.

The average next-year jump has been 12.6%, topping the 8.5% bump that you get on average overall. And its that factoid that has the LPL strategist advising against getting gloomy solely because of 2017s huge advance.

Skeptics here and there have taken shots at Detricks bullish take, noting valuations appear mighty stretched this time around.

Plus, the list of worries for the stock market looks big and fat, like any investors who gorged themselves over the holidays.

Read more: The big calls for 2018 from Josh Brown and other finance pundits

And see: Wall Street expects bull market to make history in 2018

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow
YMH8, -0.09%
, S&P 500
ESH8, +0.23%
and Nasdaq-100

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