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Tax reform may be driving markets higher today, but it doesn’t deserve nearly as much credit for 2017’s surprising bull run.
Many other important drivers led to this year’s equity rally, Credit Suisse analysts led by Jonathan Golub wrote in a note Monday. The synchronized global recovery, U.S. wage trends and low volatility all were contributors, they said.
“Economic data began to improve in early 2016, with stronger global demand contributing to earnings across markets,” the analysts wrote. Despite that, U.S. wage growth has “rolled over,” putting less pressure on corporate margins and the Federal Reserve.
They also noted that tech and Internet retail contributed to more than 40% of the market’s total return this year, while low volatility overall “supported higher multiples.”
The S&P 500 has posted record highs 61 times since January — the third-most since 1952 — returning more than 20% year-to-date.
“While many cite taxes as a recent driver of performance,” the other factors they mention are “equally important,” the analysts said.
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