Sell USDINR; target of 71.45 – 71.35: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR

Spot Currency

The rupee extended gains as the currency was buoyed by the RBI repo rate cut as well shift to “neutral stance”. Stability in currency would help contain outflows from debt markets. The rupee is expected to open further higher today while moves in major currencies during the European session would provide cues • The dollar extended gains on Wednesday benefitting from other major central banks going on the back foot from their tightening outlook. BoE raised concerns on Brexit uncertainty, which has weighed on US growth. BoE lowered its growth forecast for the UK economy along with EU growth concerns, which have weighed in the Euro and supported GBP.

Benchmark yield

Sovereign treasury yields declined to 7.32% as the RBI cut the repo rate to 6.25% and changed its stance on the monetary policy to “neutral” from “calibrated tightening”. Declining yields and strength in the rupee would help recover flows • US treasury yields extended their decline to 2.66%, amid worsening global growth expectations. However, the Fed made recent hawkish comments regarding US employment and growth. As such, incoming data remains all the more important for further signals.

Currency futures on NSE

The dollar-rupee February contract on the NSE was at 71.56 in the previous session. February contract open interest declined 3.49% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.

Intra-day strategy 

US$INR February futures contract (NSE) View: Bearish on US$INR
Sell US$ in the range of 71.65 -71.73 Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 71.45 / 71.35 Stop Loss: 71.86
Support Resistance
S1/ S2: 71.60 / 71.45 R1/R2:71.80 /71.95

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on are their own, and not that of the website or its management. advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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First Published on Feb 8, 2019 01:32 pm

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