Motilal Oswal’s research report on Allcargo Logistics
4QFY18 revenue rose 13% YoY to INR15.4b (est. of INR19.8b), led by 18% YoY growth in MTO revenue. EBITDA stood at INR739m (-30% YoY, -21% QoQ), lower than our estimate of INR994m, due to higher provisions in the P&E segment. Adj. PAT fell 68% YoY (-47% QoQ) to INR185m (est. of INR444m), as the tax rate was higher at 65% v/s 18% in the year-ago period.
P&E segment should see reduced losses due to an uptick in asset utilization. Valuations at 13.4x/10.3x FY19/20E appear attractive, given AGLL’s strong fundamentals and earnings CAGR of 27% over FY18-20E. We value AGLL at 14x FY20E P/E and arrive at a TP of INR163. Maintain Buy.
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