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Carillions collapse delivers a boost for shares of rivals

The collapse of British construction and outsourcing giant Carillion PLC was swinging focus on shares of rival companies as ripple effects from the failure started to emerge on Monday.

One company, Balfour Beatty PLC said it will take a hit of 35 million to 45 million pounds ($48 million to $62 million) from Carillions liquidation. The notification drove Balfours shares
BBY, -2.76%
lower, losing much as 2.9% on an intraday basis.

Carillion
CLLN, +0.00%
said Monday it will enter liquidation after crisis talks failed over the weekend. The construction company had been in discussions with the U.K. government and its creditors to save itself, but a deal couldnt be worked out.

The knock-on effect on the broader economy could be large, given that the potential number of job losses are in the thousands, said City Index in a note Monday, pointing out that Carillion employs around 43,000 people worldwide, including 20,000 in the U.K.

In addition to its construction business, Carillion delivers a range of public services as one of the governments biggest contractors, and subcontracts a slice of that work out to smaller companies.

The company is carrying a large pension deficit, and in November, it put out its third profit warning in under six months after some of its contracts failed to bring in the earnings expected.

Carillion shares, listed on the London Stock Exchange, were suspended Monday, at a price of 0.142 pence each. But the potential for its rivals to pick up Carillions contracts helped lift some of those companies shares. Construction and services company Interserve PLC
IRV, +1.11%
traded 2.9% higher, outsourcer Serco Group PLC
SRP, +5.35%
bulked up 4.6%, and builder Costain Group PLC
COST, +0.53%
rose 1.6%.

Shares of Kier Group PLC
KIE, +3.23%
tacked on 0.7%. The construction company had been working with Carillion on the U.K.s HS2 high-speed rail line and the Highways England smart motorways program.

Following todays announcement and after a short period of transition for these contracts, we do not expect there to be an adverse financial impact on the Group arising from these joint venture contracts, Kier said in a statement.

Shares of Banco Santander SA
SAN, +0.10%
were fractionally lower Monday. The move followed a report by business daily Expansion that the Spanish lenders U.K. arm is one of Carillions principal creditors and that Santanders total exposure to Carillion could be between 拢50 million and 拢100 million.

foreign investment

General Motors will sell its underperforming European operations to France’s PSA Groupin a deal valued at $2.2 billion, the two companies announced early Monday.

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foreign investment: Coca-Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated(COKE)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    Coca-Cola Bottling Co. (NYSE: COKE) had a revenue increase to $2.3 billion in its most recentfiscal year, from $1.7 billion in the previous one. It is moving into Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois and West Virginia, which almost certainly will require capital. Its net sales rose 37% in the most recent quarter to $840 million. Management stated this was because of “Organic growth in the legacy territories as well as territory expansion through the acquisition of several new distribution territories from Coca-Cola led to the solid performance.” The current dividend is $1, or 0.66%.

foreign investment: Summer Infant Inc.(SUMR)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows shares of Childrens Placeoutperforming last year before leveling off into a range while mid cap peerCarter’s, Inc (NYSE: CRI) is nearing previous highs againand small cap Summer Infant, Inc (NASDAQ: SUMR) is well below previous highs:

foreign investment: Duke Energy Corporation(DUK)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By WWW.KIPLINGER.COM]

    Duke Energy Corp. (DUK), the largest generator of electricity in the nation, is awfully steady.

    DUK has more than 7.4 million customers located in hotbeds of growth, and it boasts a generating capacity of 52,697 megawatts. The firm also provides natural gas distribution in many of its main service areas, so Duke is a double threat in that way. Cold winter? Nat gas provides more oomph. Hot summer? Electricity demand spikes.

foreign investment: The Joint Corp.(JYNT)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Joint Corp (NASDAQ: JYNT) is estimated to post a quarterly loss at $0.28 per share on revenue of $4.13 million.

    Synacor Inc (NASDAQ: SYNC) is projected to post a quarterly loss at $0.03 per share on revenue of $30.00 million.

foreign investment: Sagent Pharmaceuticals Inc.(SGNT)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Shares of Sagent Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: SGNT) got a boost, shooting up 40 percent to $21.65 as the company agreed to be acquired by Nichi-Iko Pharmaceutical for $21.75 per share. RBC Capital downgraded Sagent Pharmaceuticals from Outperform to Sector Perform.

foreign investment: iShares Global Infrastructure (IGF)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Wayne Duggan]

    Investors who are looking to invest in the companies that will likely be playing a central role in America’s infrastructure investment may want to consider the iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index (NYSE: IGF).

  • [By WWW.THESTREET.COM]

    It also helps to find funds that can make any wait bearable and even profitable. Several ETFs stand out for their relatively low cost, modest risk and reasonable yields. They include the Guggenheim S&P High Income Infrastructure ETF (GHII) , iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index Fund (IGF) and FlexShares STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index Fund (NFRA) .

January 2018 Movies List: 15 New Movies Coming Out This Month

Have you seen the January 2018 movies list?

January 2018 Movies Listinvestorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/film-e1293623587307-200×120.jpg 200w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/film-e1293623587307-65×39.jpg 65w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/film-e1293623587307-100×60.jpg 100w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/film-e1293623587307-150×90.jpg 150w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/film-e1293623587307-133×80.jpg 133w” sizes=”(max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px” />The new year brings with it plenty of potential from a cinematic point of view, with the first month kicking off with plenty of exciting films in several genres. Horror films such as the new Insidious offering will make it to the big screen tonight.

You will also get your dose of suspense with a new Liam Neeson offering, while a new Day of the Dead film will be a treat for fans of zombies in the big screen.

Here are 15 new movies coming out this month.

January 2018 Movies List: Friday, January 5 January 2018 Movies Listinvestorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-28×40.jpg 28w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-21×30.jpg 21w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-141×200.jpg 141w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-63×90.jpg 63w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-106×150.jpg 106w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-56×80.jpg 56w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-88×125.jpg 88w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-46×65.jpg 46w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-35×50.jpg 35w,https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-50×71.jpg 50w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-425×600.jpg 425w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba-85×120.jpg 85w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Idris-Elba.jpg 459w” sizes=”(max-width: 212px) 100vw, 212px” /> Source: Wikipedia
Insidious: The Last Key – PG-13/Horror Molly’s Game – R/Biography Day of the Dead: Bloodline – R/Horror The Strange Ones – R/Drama

 

January 2018 Movies List: Friday, January 12

January 2018 Movies Listinvestorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-812×1024.jpg 812w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-32×40.jpg 32w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-24×30.jpg 24w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-250×315.jpg 250w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-159×200.jpg 159w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-127×160.jpg 127w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-65×82.jpg 65w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-100×126.jpg 100w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-119×150.jpg 119w,https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-63×80.jpg 63w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-99×125.jpg 99w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-52×65.jpg 52w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-40×50.jpg 40w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-56×71.jpg 56w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-476×600.jpg 476w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks-95×120.jpg 95w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Tom-Hanks.jpg 1189w” sizes=”(max-width: 238px) 100vw, 238px” />

The Post – PG-13/Biography The Commuter – PG-13/Crime Proud Mary – R/Action Paddington 2 – PG/Animation Saturday Church – Drama

 

January 2018 Movies List: Friday, January 19 January 2018 Movies Listinvestorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-250×166.jpg 250w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-200×133.jpg 200w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-65×43.jpg 65w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-100×66.jpg 100w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-150×100.jpg 150w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630-120×80.jpg 120w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Jump_from_plane_630.jpg 630w” sizes=”(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px” /> Source: Flickr
12 Strong – R/Action Forever My Girl – PG/Drama Den of Thieves – R/Action January 2018 Movies List: Friday, January 26 January 2018 Movies Listinvestorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-768×586.jpg 768w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning.jpg 1024w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-39×30.jpg 39w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-200×153.jpg 200w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-393×300.jpg 393w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-116×88.jpg 116w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-100×76.jpg 100w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-164×125.jpg 164w,https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-66×50.jpg 66w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-78×59.jpg 78w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-787×600.jpg 787w, investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Dakota-Fanning-157×120.jpg 157w” sizes=”(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px” /> Source: Flickr
Maze Runner: The Death Cure – PG-13/Action Please Stand By – PG-13/Comedy Primal Rage – R/Horror

 

 

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Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018

William Patalon III

Having spent the last 30 years observing public companies and their leaders, here’s one important lesson I’ve learned.

Of all the mistakes that corporate CEOs can make, there are two that are nail-down-the-lid-on-your-own-coffin, wipe-yourself-out killers.

Both have to do with emerging “threats” to the company’s core business. Those new “threats” can take a number of different forms. Perhaps it’s a new technology. Or a new rival. Or some sort of societal change that structurally changes customer wants, needs or tastes.

With any of those options, you’re talking about a change in the company’s business landscape.

And how the CEO responds to those threats not only bolsters or slashes his or her company’s stock price – it can also determine whether that firm thrives… or fails.

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc.(LLL)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    Headquartered in New York City, large cap L3 Technologies Inc (NYSE: LLL) employs approximately 38,000 people worldwide and is a leading provider of a broad range of communication, electronic and sensor systems used on military, homeland security and commercial platforms. L3 is also a prime contractor in aerospace systems, security and detection systems, and pilot training. The Company reported 2016 sales of $10.5 billion.

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows ViaSat, Inc plus mid to large cap communications stockslikeHarris Corporation (NYSE: HRS) and L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc (NYSE: LLL)had been moving in tandem until last yearwhile small cap Gogo Inc has underperformed:

  • [By Chris Lange]

    L3 Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LLL) just hosted its investor day and projected that it wants to be considered among the top defense firms. Multiple analysts have raised their target prices. RBC raised its rating to Outperform from Sector Perform and its target price to $239 from $202. Other price target hikes were seen as follows: Cowen to $210 from $200, Jefferies to $201 from $188 and JPMorgan to $220 from $205.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Five teams are expected to compete for the contract: Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has joined with Saab to offer a clean-sheet design; Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) has teamed up with BAE Systems and L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LLL) on another clean-sheet design; Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) are going with a modified KAI T-50; Raytheon Corp. (NYSE: RTN) has joined with Italy’s Leonardo and Canada’s CAE Inc. (NYSE: CAE) on a version of Leonardo’s M-346 trainer that it calls the T-100; and privately held Sierra Nevada has partnered with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) on another clean-sheet design.

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: Sapiens International Corporation N.V.(SPNS)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Lisa Levin] Gainers
    Trevena Inc (NASDAQ: TRVN) rose 10.8 percent to $3.60 in pre-market trading after dropping 4.97 percent on Wednesday.
    Yum China Holdings Inc (NYSE: YUMC) rose 10.2 percent to $31.05 in pre-market trading after the company reported upbeat earnings for its first quarter.
    Seres Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: MCRB) rose 9.1 percent to $11.39 in pre-market trading after dropping 5.26 percent on Wednesday.
    Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ: PLUG) rose 8.9 percent to $2.45 in pre-market trading after surging 73.08 percent on Wednesday.
    Coach Inc (NYSE: COH) rose 6.7 percent to $41.98 in pre-market trading. Coach named Ian Bickley as President, Global Business Development and Strategic Alliances.
    Sapiens International Corporation N.V. (NASDAQ: SPNS) shares rose 6.1 percent to $13.91 in pre-market trading after gaining 0.54 percent on Wednesday.
    Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ: JAZZ) rose 6.1 percent to $149.15 in pre-market trading. Jazz Pharma reached a settlement with Hikma Pharma related to Xyrem patent case. Mizuho downgraded Jazz from Buy to Neutral.
    Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: IBKR) shares rose 6 percent to $36.72 in pre-market trading after declining 0.03 percent on Wednesday.
    Rewalk Robotics Ltd (NASDAQ: RWLK) rose 5.3 percent to $2.00 in pre-market trading after the company disclosed that the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs purchased 28 added Exoskeleton Systems.
    Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: MACK) rose 5.1 percent to $3.29 in pre-market trading. Merrimack declared a $1.06 special dividend.
    BioTime, Inc. (NYSE: BTX) shares rose 4.8 percent to $3.50 in pre-market trading. BioTime, reported the formation of new subsidiary AgeX Therapeutics, Inc.
    Akari Therapeutics PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ: AKTX) shares rose 4.8 percent to $12.26 in pre-market trading after gaining 0.69 percent on Wednesday.
    Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) rose 3.6 percent to $39.15 in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: Motorola Solutions, Inc.(MSI)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows large caps Cisco Systems and Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE: MSI) giving roughly the same positive albeit sometimes bumpy performance whileQualcomm, Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) has fallen in and out of negative territory:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows large caps Cisco Systems and Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE: MSI) giving roughly the same performance whileQualcomm, Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) began going in the other directionaround 2015:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows Qualcomm breaking even whilepotential peers Cisco Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE: MSI) have performed better albeit they have seen their share of volatility:

  • [By Peter Graham]

    A long term performance chart shows large caps Cisco Systems and Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE: MSI) giving roughly the same positive performance whileQualcomm, Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) began going in the other directionaround 2014/2015:

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: Apple Inc.(AAPL)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Virendra Singh Chauhan]

    The iPhone 8 Super Cycle, due to start with the expected launch of the new iPhone in September 2018, has been talked about a lot. There has been a lot of hype among Apple analysts and investors alike. A couple of recent analyst notes come to mind in this context. RBC capital recently added AAPL stock to its top tech stock picks for 2017. As reported by IBD, RBC analysts Amit Daryani and Mitch Stevessaid “The iPhone 8 could trigger a supercycle given the aging installed base of iPhones in use.” This came closely on Gene Munster’s last AAPL note from the desks of Piper Jaffray. The departing Apple analyst expects the iPhone 7 unit growth to come in higher than consensus while predicting next year’s iPhone model to be “compelling enough to sustain high single-digit to low double-digit unit growth,” as reported by Bloomberg. With major feature updates in store for the loyal Apple fan base, it is reasonable that the iPhone 8 will fly off the shelves, faster than ever. Add to this the fact that the 8 models could rake in higher ASPs and higher profit margins and the positive impact on Apple’s largest revenue segment becomes hard to ignore. (See also: An Unexpected Catalyst For Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone 8 Super Cycle)

  • [By Kumar Abhishek]

    Since its near-death experience in the 1990s, Cupertino-basedtech giant Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL),which is one of the greatest cash machinesin corporate history, has been rather conservative when it came to its finances and balance sheet. The MacBook maker had hardly any debt on its balance sheet throughout Steve Jobs’ second stint as its CEO, and invested all its cash in highly liquid U.S treasuries. Apple Inc was also very conservative in rewarding investors through dividends and stock buybacks. Back in 2010, Reuters published an article titled “Cash-rich Apple’s CFO may have world’s best job” describing Apple’s conservative financial practices.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) both recently introduced their mobile payment systems, Apple Pay and Android Pay, in Japan, where the technology has been in use for a dozen years. In 2015, mobile payments accounted for $44 billion in sales in Japan.

  • [By Casey Wilson]

    The company’s robots sort, paint, fill, and count everything from trucks, to medicine, to ketchup for big-name customers like General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM). The company is also a key Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) supplier.

  • [By Jack Foley]

    Autonomous vehicles is another segment of the auto industry that Trump is expected to attack. Why? Well if autonomous vehicles gain traction in the years ahead, the US economy is looking at massive job losses. Remember, all this industry will have to see here will be a hesitancy on the government’s part for approving this technology for the future investments to disappear. The technology is definitely there as illustrated by companies such as Alphabet (NSDQ:GOOGL)and Apple (NSDQ:AAPL)which are developing the software, but that is only one piece of the puzzle.

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: Analog Devices, Inc.(ADI)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Lee Jackson]

    Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) has been on a huge run, and a director at the chip company took advantage by selling a block of 50,000 shares of the stock at prices that ranged from $83.00 to $83.50. The total of the sale was set at $4 million. The shares ended Friday at $83.26, in a 52-week trading range is $52.17 to $84.24. The consensus price target is $89.42.

  • [By WWW.THESTREET.COM]

    Chips from Texas Instruments (TXN) are built into a lot of devices that matter, Cramer said, and if investors want autonomous vehicles, they should be looking at Analog Devices (ADI) .

  • [By WWW.THESTREET.COM]

    Cramer was not bullish on Campbell Soup (CPB) , which also reports Tuesday, but did have good things to say about Tech Data (TECD) , Analog Devices (ADI) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding.

  • [By Leo Sun]

    If you think that Apple still has room to run, you should also check out three of its top suppliers — Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), and Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) — which could all be lifted by the tech giant’s rally.

Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2018: FormFactor, Inc.(FORM)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Jim Robertson]

    On Tuesday, our Elite Opportunity Pronewsletter suggested small cap semiconductor equipment & testing stock FormFactor, Inc (NASDAQ: FORM) as a short term long trade thats a pure small cap play with excellent valuation metrics, in addition to some very attractive chart implications right now:

Millennials are getting older and thats good for stocks

Finallyafter years of horror stories about the economic impact of the growing number of retirees in the U.S.some good news.

After at least two decades in which more people were entering retirement than into the workforce, the tide is turning. For the next two decades, it will be just the reverse.

In other words, demographics in the U.S. are about to shift from being stiff headwinds to powerful tailwinds for the stock market.

For all this we can thank the millennial generation, which consists of those who were born in the 1980s and 1990s. Though that generation isnt as big as the infamous baby boom generation that preceded them, it is still big enough to represent a powerful economic force.

To be sure, Im focusing on the economy as a whole, which doesnt mean that every individuals retirement prospects are brightening. In fact, as has been often noted in recent years, many have not saved and invested enough. A stronger long-term uptrend in the stock market is unable to bail out a retiree in that position.

But the upcoming shift in demographic trend is good news for those who have heavily invested their retirement portfolios in the stock market.

How good? For an answer I turn to a demographic indicator that researchers have found to be impressively correlated with the stock market: The ratio of the middle-aged population to those who are in the younger-aged cohortknown as the MY ratio. According to a number of academic studies, the stock market tends to perform better when the MY ratio is rising than when it is declining.

Notice from the accompanying chart that the MY ratio bottomed in 2016 and will be trending upward for two decades.

The chart also shows the MY ratio back to 1900 against the inflation-adjusted S&P 500
SPX, +0.70%
. Alejandra Grindal, Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research, writes that the MY ratio has had a pretty good track record in the U.S., helping define the beginning and end of some secular bull and bear equity markets. The stock markets 1981 low and the 2000 high are some of the MY ratios most spectacular successes.

To quantify the MY ratios track record, Grindal measured the correlation between the MY ratio and the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA, +0.88%
She found a correlation coefficient of 0.71, which is impressively high. This coefficient would be 1.0 if the charts two data series were completely correlated, and 0 if there was no correlation whatsoever.

Read: This is how your finances should look in your 30s

The MY ratio isnt a perfect stock market forecaster, and the period since 2000 is a case in point. After all, since the ratio has steadily declined since then, the stock market should be a lot lower today than then.

But Grindal, in an interview, argued that we shouldnt be too quick to declare the MY ratio a failure. Without the Feds extraordinary policy of quantitative easing over the last decade, for example, its not unlikely that the stock market would be a lot lower today. In any case, the years since 2000 have included two of the worst bear markets in U.S. history.

Furthermore, its worth adding, even with the Feds boost the stock market this century has been a well-below-average performer. Consider the inflation-adjusted return of various stock market averages from their early-2000 highs to the end of 2016, which is when the MY ratio hit bottom: The S&P 500 produced just a 0.1% annualized real return over that period, while the Nasdaq
COMP, +0.83%
produced an annualized 0.7% loss. The two-century average inflation-adjusted return for equities, according to the Wharton Schools Jeremy Siegel, is between 6% and 7% annualized.

Note carefully that even if the MY ratios forecast turns out to be right, it applies to the longer-term: The stock market should be materially higher in 10 to 15 years time. The ratio doesnt have any ability to predict the stock markets shorter-term gyrations. So it would not be inconsistent with its forecast of a much higher stock market in the 2030s for equities to suffer a number of cyclical bear markets along the way.

Still, as Grindal points out, demographics are one of the few indicators one can accurately forecast in the long-term. And, for the first time in many years, the bulls can stop being in denial about demographic indicators and start trumpeting their message.

For more information, including descriptions of the Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to The Hulbert Financial Digest or email mark@hulbertratings.com.